Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday is here. It’s possible that we could know by tonight who the presumptive nominees are for president, but the way this election cycle has gone, my guess is that that won’t happen.

Just some things I’ve noticed:

* I don’t know if Barack Obama is going to win big today, but he’s going to make this one close. We all saw the how tentative veracity of polling can be right before the New Hampshire primary in January (he had a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton and she ended up edging him by a few percentage points), but a noticeable trend is that polls show him storming to either the top or to within strking distance of Clinton’s leads in nearly all the Super Tuesday state polls since his huge win in South Carolina. And since the Democrats don’t have any winner-take-all states, a few wins for Obama and a few wins for Clinton could mean Democrats will wake up tomorrow in the same situation they’re in today — with a months-long election battle still ahead and no clear picture of who’s going to come out on top.

*John McCain has all of the momentum in the world. A prominent local Republican I spoke with today described Mitt Romney’s situation as one in which he’s taking a beating from “the media.” He also called McCain “St. John” in the eyes of the media and said he’s “the liberal Republican the media loves.” I don’t know if I think that’s the case, but McCain does seem to appear pretty unstoppable. Polls show the two neck-and-neck in California, and that’s huge because California isn’t one of the Republicans’ winner-take-all states today. But if either of the men scores a big enough victory, they’ll likely wake up tomorrow and start gearing up for November. If that man happens to be John McCain, the November race may be unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my life, as Republican personalities like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Sean Hannity can be heard on a daily basis bashing him. Will they come around for the general election if McCain is crowned the nominee? It’s an interesting question, and one that I’m kind of hoping we’ll get to see answered.

*I don’t think Mike Huckabee has a chance to win this thing anymore, but he’s definitely playing a role in this. I guessed on the day Iowa caucused that he’d fade in popularity and McCain would take him as a VP candidate. That seems more likely each day, as the longer he stays in this, the more he splits Romney’s socially conservative base. He’d also shore up some of the socially conservative credentials McCain seems to lack.

*For all of the big media’s talking points during elections, one that I think is actually pretty valid at this stage of the presidential race is the idea that today is the closest thing our country has seen to a national primary. 21 states (or 22 and American Somoa, depending on which party you’re affiliated with) are voting today. That’s millions of people going to the polls. I personally don’t think a national primary would ever work — we’d see about as much of the candidates in places like North Carolina as we do in the general election, which isn’t much. They go to the big population centers, especially in states considered “in play” for both parties. But as it stands now, North Carolina doesn’t see any of the candidates during primary season, since we vote in May, when everyone will probably already know who their choices are in November. I don’t have a solution, but I would like to see our state in play, one way or another.

Prison escape update: 3:20 p.m.

Stewart Baldwin, the remaining escapee from the Chatham County Jail, hadn’t been recaptured by authorities as of 3 p.m. today.

On a trip up to Pittsboro, I found that people in the downtown area aren’t too worried about their safety and that there seems to be a lot of confidence in the sheriff’s office and how they’re doing their job.

Tony Baker, who owns a photography business on the main drag in Pittsboro, said he went through a traffic stop set up by Chatham deputies earlier in the day.

“The description they gave me said the guy is over 6 feet tall and more than 250 pounds,” Baker told me. “So he’s not going to be too anonymous, wherever he is. And if he has mayhem on his mind, I doubt he’s going to do it in the shadow of the courthouse.”

Eric Shook, who owns J. Henry Paint and Hardware in Pittsboro, said he’s familiar with Baldwin, who he described as “one of our local crackheads.”

“He’s pretty harmless,” Shook said. “I don’t feel any less safe. Everyone in Pittsboro leaves their doors unlocked.”

On a trip to the sheriff’s office, I found almost nobody to talk to. So I’m presuming that everyone is out looking for Baldwin.

More updates as they come in.

Prison escape update: 12:17 p.m.

Still no word on whether Stewart Baldwin, the only escapee from the Chatham County Jail who remains at large, has been caught.

There are some details, though, about the escape itself, though:

Authorities are saying that the five escapees — four of whom have been caught — “overpowered” staff at the jail in Pittsboro and took keys before changing out of their jail-issue jumpsuits and leaving the building itself. To get outside of the fenced-in outer area of the jail, the five inmates apparently threw a heavy jacket over the top of the razor wire and climbed over.

Like I said earlier, four of the five inmates have been taken back into custody. As soon as I hear word on the fifth one (Stewart Baldwin, who I mentioned earlier), I’ll have another update.

Pittsboro inmates escape, Chatham schools delayed

I was going to write about Super Tuesday and my thoughts. I still may do that later, but this seems a little more relevant right now:

PITTSBORO — Several schools in Chatham County operated on a two-hour delay Tuesday while law enforcement officials sought an escaped inmate in the Pittsboro area.

Five men escaped from the Chatham County Jail Monday night, but four of them had been captured as of Tuesday morning.

The suspect who remains at large is Stewart Wendell Baldwin, 30, of 130 Mann’s Chapel Road. He was in the jail on felony drug and weapon charges.

Three of the suspects — Carlos Reyes, 24, of Chapel Hill, Kyle Evan Kettrey, 22, of 185-C Morris Road, Pittsboro, and Brian Keith Blackwell, 32, of Carrboro — were taken back into custody Monday night at a traffic stop.

Reyes was in the jail on charges of first degree rape and taking indecent liberties with a minor. Kettrey was in the jail on a breaking and entering charge and Blackwell was in the jail on on felony drug charges.

A fourth escapee, 16-year-old James Austin Tarrer of 2480 Hadley Mill Roa, Pittsboro was captured shortly after the escape.

The schools with delays were Northwood High, Horton Middle, Pittsboro Elementary, Moncure School, North Chatham School, Perry Harrison School and Pittsboro Baptist pre-school.

I’m waiting for more information on this, and when I get it, I’ll update it here. Check tomorrow’s Herald for a complete story.